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The following article is a data-driven analysis of current risks. It is not a prediction. Markets are functioning normally, and we are not seeing stress signals in credit or equity markets yet. Portfolios are currently stable. Our job is to prepare, not react. The Conflict Has Left the Realm of Theoretical Scenarios For weeks, analysts debated how escalation between the United States and Iran might unfold. That debate is now behind us. Joint US-Israeli airstrikes began on Feb

Weak Correlation Between Oil Prices and Bond Yields

Summary A new AI tool called Claude Cowork launched in January and wiped-out hundreds of billions of dollars in stock value in weeks. People panicked. Two viral posts, one viewed 80 million times, warned that AI is about to take everyone's jobs and crash the economy. Those writers aren't completely wrong. But they're also not completely right. The software companies most likely to survive are ones that have real protection: they work in heavily regulated fields, they're so de

Over the last few days, several clients reached out regarding our CIO Martin Fridson’s Reuters article on dividend “aristocrats.”   The core idea Marty highlighted is intuitive: if inflation stays stubborn, income strategies that only maximize today’s yield can lose purchasing power over time, while businesses that raise dividends over time may help your income keep up with inflation. Marty illustrated this by contrasting a fixed-rate bond bought in 2015 and a dividend growe

I f you’ve ever sat through a pitch on a closed-end fund (CEF), chances are the salesperson led with one selling point: It’s trading at a...

Trump’s tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China have triggered immediate economic disruptions, with falling stock markets, rising energy prices

Why a comeback of value stocks may not be inevitable

As the anticipation builds for a possible rate cut by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) later this year, bondholders are naturally...

If you are viewing the upcoming presidential election with trepidation, you are in the majority among investors. Betterment reports that...

In today’s market, it might be tempting for investors to pivot away from fixed income assets in favor of equities. This is equivalent to...