Iran, Oil, and Markets
The following article is a data-driven analysis of current risks. It is not a prediction. Markets are functioning normally, and we are not seeing stress signals in credit or equity markets yet. Portfolios are currently stable. Our job is to prepare, not react. The Conflict Has Left the Realm of Theoretical Scenarios For weeks, analysts debated how escalation between the United States and Iran might unfold. That debate is now behind us. Joint US-Israeli airstrikes began on Feb
Mar 188 min read
The Oil Price Spike’s Implications for Interest Rates: What the Data Says
Weak Correlation Between Oil Prices and Bond Yields
Mar 103 min read
Is AI Going to Crash the Stock Market? SaaSpocalipse Explained.
Summary A new AI tool called Claude Cowork launched in January and wiped-out hundreds of billions of dollars in stock value in weeks. People panicked. Two viral posts, one viewed 80 million times, warned that AI is about to take everyone's jobs and crash the economy. Those writers aren't completely wrong. But they're also not completely right. The software companies most likely to survive are ones that have real protection: they work in heavily regulated fields, they're so de
Mar 46 min read
