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The following article is a data-driven analysis of current risks. It is not a prediction. Markets are functioning normally, and we are not seeing stress signals in credit or equity markets yet. Portfolios are currently stable. Our job is to prepare, not react. The Conflict Has Left the Realm of Theoretical Scenarios For weeks, analysts debated how escalation between the United States and Iran might unfold. That debate is now behind us. Joint US-Israeli airstrikes began on Feb

Weak Correlation Between Oil Prices and Bond Yields

Trump’s tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China have triggered immediate economic disruptions, with falling stock markets, rising energy prices

The escalating confrontations between Hamas and Israel are causing understandable concern worldwide. A recent PBS/NPR survey revealed...

Energy stocks (represented by the S&P 500’s Energy subindex) rose in the six months ending November 20, 2022, despite a massive drop in...

The Fed’s muscular effort to bring inflation under control has had repercussions across the investment spectrum. For example, one...

Critics of BlackRock are urging investors to avoid funds offered by the investment management firm, the world’s largest. This effort is...

Every so often, on CNBC or in the Wall Street Journal, some investment luminary declares that it is time to get out of the market. The...

On September 13, August's US Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers were released. Inflation had been widely viewed as moderating, but the...

Gold is viewed by many as one of the main hedges against inflation. With the Consumer Price Index up 9.1% year-over-year in June and gold...